Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -400 CMU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -4.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -3.6 (+3.4) | 143.8 (-10.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -6.4 (+0.6) | 146.6 (-13.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -4.9 (+2.1) | 145.6 (-12.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -3.6 (+3.4) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 0-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L12 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#246) | -3.6 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#286) | -2.60 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#260) | -3.45 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#321) | 0.367 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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