Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -172 QUC +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUC +8 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -5.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -2.7 (-10.7) | 149.5 (+16.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.6 (-13.6) | 152.5 (+13.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -6.3 (-14.3) | 152.0 (+14.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -4.8 (-12.8) | 148.7 (+17.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | QUC 74 – 72 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#160) | 0.8 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#26) | 0.97 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#33) | 0.32 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#66) | 0.550 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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