Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -500 EVAN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +19 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -15.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -10.5 (+8.5) | 137.5 (+19.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -11.5 (+7.5) | 138.8 (+18.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -11.6 (+7.4) | 138.0 (+19.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -10.8 (+8.2) | 138.1 (+18.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | EVAN 64 – 52 BALL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | BALL 80 – 43 EVAN |
| Nov 18, 2023 | EVAN 74 – 50 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-19 |
| Home | 12-2 | 3-10 |
| Away | 6-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#132) | -8.2 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#165) | -1.51 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#145) | -2.18 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#196) | 0.393 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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