Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN -285 BALL +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +12 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -6.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -5.0 (+7.0) | 133.6 (-17.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -3.3 (+8.7) | 134.1 (-18.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -3.8 (+8.2) | 135.8 (-19.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -4.6 (+7.4) | 135.4 (-19.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | BALL 80 – 43 EVAN |
| Nov 18, 2023 | EVAN 74 – 50 BALL |
| Dec 10, 2022 | BALL 88 – 69 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-10 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#319) | -11.5 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#301) | -2.46 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#294) | -3.76 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#250) | 0.320 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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