Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 113.5 Over |
| Money | GCU +150 UNT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -2.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 107.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -2.5 (+0.5) | 120.7 (-2.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -3.4 (+1.4) | 118.1 (-0.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.6 (+0.6) | 121.1 (-3.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.7 (+0.7) | 122.8 (-4.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 31-7 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 56.3 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#117) | 5.8 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#130) | 1.55 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#130) | 2.23 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#115) | 0.565 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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