Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +160 UVU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UVU -2.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -2.5 (-2.5) | 147.2 (+7.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -5.0 (-0.0) | 143.9 (+11.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -1.2 (-3.8) | 145.1 (+9.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -2.2 (-2.8) | 146.4 (+8.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | UVU 73 – 69 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#261) | 2.6 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#269) | 0.16 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#264) | 1.16 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#242) | 0.511 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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