Betting Lines
| Spread | DART -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | CCSU +110 DART -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +9 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -4.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -1.6 (+7.4) | 135.4 (-26.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -0.6 (+8.4) | 136.3 (-27.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -2.2 (+6.8) | 135.9 (-26.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -2.9 (+6.1) | 136.6 (-27.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#321) | -8.5 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.29 (#361) | -1.27 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.82 (#359) | -2.01 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#349) | 0.433 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 12.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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