Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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58–27 on winners spread MAE 8.7 85 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Dayton +1.1 146.2 55% 68–62 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Brown -3.3 138.8 33% 82–61 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +10.3 158.9 84% 78–86 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State +0.2 133.6 50% 69–85 ✓
Buffalo @ Toledo +5.3 154.6 73% 78–99 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +2.8 129.7 62% 71–81 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota -1.4 149.8 44% 76–62 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +3.2 139.9 62% 84–90 ✓
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +9.8 148.9 81% 70–84 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +7.0 156.6 80% 63–71 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +2.2 138.4 63% 62–77 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +1.4 134.2 63% 55–68 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +1.4 133.5 56% 74–55 ✗
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +3.8 147.2 68% 94–85 ✗
St. John's @ Seton Hall -1.9 127.7 45% 72–65 ✓
Portland @ Washington State +4.8 147.5 69% 74–68 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Ohio -6.6 156.8 23% 110–108 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +1.2 137.3 58% 91–85 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota -2.7 157.4 38% 67–83 ✗
UNLV @ San Diego State +9.6 156.1 83% 86–89 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State -0.7 127.9 41% 74–52 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -0.6 138.5 46% 61–66 ✗
San Diego @ Seattle U +9.5 135.9 83% 56–58 ✓
Houston @ Oklahoma State -8.7 147.5 20% 82–75 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri -2.1 161.9 44% 88–84 ✓
Davidson @ St. Bonaventure +0.2 140.6 45% 68–63 ✗
Butler @ DePaul +2.0 139.2 60% 81–71 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +11.1 152.6 86% 78–91 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -2.6 140.6 38% 69–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +14.5 139.0 89% 76–79 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Delaware -0.5 135.2 48% 81–38 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +11.0 150.3 87% 72–76 ✓
Campbell @ Stony Brook -2.1 142.4 37% 96–89 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst +5.4 134.9 66% 51–56 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +14.3 141.7 88% 76–83 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +12.6 146.9 86% 71–75 ✓
UConn @ Marquette -9.0 142.1 19% 62–68 ✗
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +8.4 134.4 83% 76–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +5.6 144.4 71% 64–61 ✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +2.4 139.5 66% 76–81 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +12.5 137.4 88% 69–84 ✓
Arizona State @ Iowa State +12.1 145.2 88% 65–86 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +12.4 149.3 88% 85–104 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +4.1 149.1 75% 86–82 ✗
Louisville @ Miami +1.0 155.0 64% 92–89 ✗
Cornell @ Dartmouth -2.0 157.6 45% 111–90 ✓
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago -12.3 147.8 16% 62–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Fordham +0.2 130.9 44% 49–61 ✓
Richmond @ Duquesne +3.0 145.4 69% 77–79 ✓
Cincinnati @ TCU +3.5 137.9 68% 63–73 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -1.1 158.0 48% 78–91 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +13.9 140.6 87% 53–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -1.1 157.2 45% 67–92 ✗
Sam Houston @ Liberty +1.2 154.1 62% 72–79 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +11.8 134.6 88% 57–77 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University +7.4 141.8 77% 56–64 ✓
Stanford @ NC State +7.4 154.8 79% 85–84 ✗
Northeastern @ Drexel +3.1 134.3 65% 77–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +3.8 152.7 71% 75–72 ✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +7.4 140.5 77% 71–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Missouri State +0.2 144.7 51% 75–63 ✗
Jacksonville State @ UTEP +0.0 135.2 47% 64–61 ✗
Georgia @ Mississippi State -7.7 166.2 20% 102–96 ✓
Drake @ UIC +4.8 143.4 74% 51–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +8.2 156.0 80% 97–93 ✗
Florida @ Kentucky -3.2 153.0 35% 84–77 ✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason -7.5 143.1 25% 57–86 ✗
New Mexico @ Utah State +5.2 152.2 76% 90–94 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Wichita State +6.0 149.4 78% 70–88 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State +1.7 144.5 61% 78–67 ✗
California @ Wake Forest +2.5 149.4 62% 73–80 ✓
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State +1.6 153.7 58% 76–79 ✓
Maine @ NJIT +3.2 129.5 56% 58–60 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse +5.0 142.9 72% 71–69 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State -6.3 145.1 27% 88–78 ✓
Utah @ Baylor +10.5 152.0 83% 75–101 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas +4.2 145.5 73% 63–73 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +4.9 145.7 75% 78–91 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -0.0 161.8 50% 94–91 ✓
Furman @ Samford +0.2 141.9 52% 86–81 ✗
Marist @ Quinnipiac -0.5 130.9 51% 77–75 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +4.7 124.9 75% 68–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley -3.3 132.5 33% 73–69 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +14.5 146.6 88% 61–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ App State +2.5 134.9 60% 86–73 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.