Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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61–23 on winners spread MAE 8.3 84 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Peter's @ Duquesne +9.9 133.0 81% 59–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston College +19.3 142.1 90% 64–95 ✓
Stonehill @ Rider +6.0 143.1 75% 56–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Manhattan +6.2 150.4 72% 76–71 ✗
Army @ Harvard +14.5 132.2 87% 64–70 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ High Point +23.8 159.5 91% 62–75 ✓
Oakland @ Eastern Michigan -5.5 142.0 26% 77–63 ✓
UIC @ Jacksonville State -1.6 124.8 41% 55–49 ✓
Navy @ Quinnipiac +3.7 136.6 60% 68–71 ✓
Tulane @ Mississippi State +2.2 141.2 57% 76–106 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgetown +2.4 147.5 62% 80–68 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ UConn +35.2 166.8 91% 63–101 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Kentucky +9.1 159.6 81% 66–81 ✓
Illinois @ Tennessee +6.5 144.5 74% 79–86 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Minnesota +14.8 144.4 87% 57–77 ✓
Valparaiso @ Virginia Tech +17.0 137.9 87% 50–71 ✓
South Carolina @ East Carolina -5.9 140.0 26% 68–62 ✓
California @ Butler +15.6 152.8 87% 90–97 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +2.9 149.3 60% 77–91 ✓
Troy @ Dayton +14.2 148.7 87% 70–82 ✓
Towson @ UMBC +0.3 141.9 49% 89–73 ✗
Youngstown State @ Western Michigan -4.0 139.6 39% 72–68 ✓
American University @ VMI +2.8 142.4 56% 77–69 ✗
Alabama @ Purdue +3.4 168.2 63% 86–92 ✓
Kansas State @ LSU +2.6 151.2 61% 75–60 ✗
South Florida @ Florida State +5.4 136.7 70% 88–72 ✗
Central Michigan @ Creighton +27.4 144.7 91% 64–109 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Buffalo -7.1 141.9 25% 82–65 ✓
Georgia State @ Mercer -2.0 144.2 46% 60–64 ✗
Longwood @ Delaware State -3.0 143.4 32% 62–61 ✓
Louisville @ DePaul +2.9 147.4 62% 68–75 ✓
Colgate @ Vermont +5.5 131.0 64% 77–71 ✗
Wofford @ Coastal Carolina -3.7 153.9 38% 88–80 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Indiana State +23.3 144.0 90% 54–98 ✓
Cleveland State @ Kent State +8.7 146.1 79% 77–83 ✓
La Salle @ Lafayette -1.9 143.6 40% 67–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Davidson +9.3 141.4 79% 61–79 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Liberty +6.2 145.9 69% 69–64 ✗
Georgia Southern @ North Florida +10.6 149.6 83% 56–64 ✓
Portland @ North Dakota +3.9 143.2 67% 83–72 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Monmouth +4.1 152.6 66% 71–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Toledo +8.9 151.9 80% 80–84 ✓
Auburn @ Indiana -4.9 140.1 29% 104–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Maine +8.8 132.9 80% 56–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ South Carolina State +2.2 147.9 53% 80–71 ✗
Le Moyne @ Binghamton +10.5 145.2 82% 79–91 ✓
Charlotte @ Duke +10.9 140.0 83% 56–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas +24.7 150.4 91% 50–77 ✓
Hofstra @ Saint Louis -4.3 150.8 34% 68–71 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +14.6 133.3 86% 67–72 ✓
Northwestern State @ Southern Miss +10.9 145.1 80% 74–83 ✓
Wisconsin @ Arizona +14.1 148.1 86% 73–98 ✓
UAB @ Arkansas State +2.6 146.7 65% 68–87 ✓
Jackson State @ Houston +30.0 132.5 91% 55–89 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma +7.0 149.6 76% 70–79 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Wyoming +0.6 139.0 59% 70–78 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Georgia Tech +14.7 146.0 88% 49–70 ✓
Marist @ Dartmouth -2.2 127.5 41% 63–53 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Incarnate Word +1.3 143.8 53% 76–75 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Western Carolina +9.6 150.4 81% 63–78 ✓
Marshall @ Ohio +10.7 155.7 83% 74–69 ✗
Drexel @ West Virginia +0.6 125.1 52% 60–66 ✓
Siena @ St. Bonaventure +29.6 135.5 91% 56–89 ✓
Richmond @ Florida +2.3 152.2 57% 76–87 ✓
TCU @ Clemson +2.3 148.9 59% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Radford +9.2 141.4 81% 74–82 ✓
Omaha @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +1.9 143.9 58% 58–62 ✓
Kansas City @ Lindenwood +3.1 140.4 48% 72–67 ✗
Milwaukee @ UC Davis +7.9 141.7 72% 81–79 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Loyola Maryland +1.6 140.3 53% 77–64 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Sacramento State +1.6 137.7 57% 62–60 ✗
Utah Valley @ Oregon State +2.1 133.7 61% 71–74 ✓
Santa Clara @ New Mexico +8.5 148.2 80% 76–93 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ San José State +12.6 146.2 87% 82–87 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +13.4 141.3 86% 64–73 ✓
Ohio State @ Penn State -5.7 148.3 42% 80–83 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Air Force +12.8 138.5 81% 73–68 ✗
Coppin State @ George Washington +20.5 138.6 91% 45–76 ✓
Canisius @ Pittsburgh +13.3 146.3 86% 71–82 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +4.1 145.9 64% 67–57 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Colorado State +15.2 137.6 81% 64–61 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Southern +6.7 146.1 70% 44–69 ✓
Cincinnati @ Xavier +0.4 150.0 61% 79–84 ✓
Bryant @ Stony Brook -0.1 133.6 55% 75–86 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.