I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
49–30 on winners spread MAE 8.9 79 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Canisius @ Siena +5.2 136.7 72% 76–75 ✗
Charlotte @ Marshall +14.5 142.5 88% 67–75 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama -2.0 136.5 38% 81–96 ✗
Ball State @ Toledo +11.9 156.4 85% 70–89 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan +3.1 139.2 53% 64–63 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Davis +1.0 145.4 56% 73–68 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge -7.8 147.6 22% 72–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -8.3 146.8 18% 71–68 ✓
Old Dominion @ Western Kentucky +10.0 140.8 80% 71–69 ✗
UAB @ North Texas +7.2 129.0 72% 65–51 ✗
Samford @ Mercer +8.7 152.9 78% 59–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Belmont +6.2 145.4 71% 69–72 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest -6.4 141.4 20% 75–63 ✓
Tarleton State @ UT Rio Grande Valley +3.4 131.5 56% 65–47 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -10.6 136.0 15% 82–59 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +0.5 151.8 52% 85–89 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara +21.7 132.2 91% 57–71 ✓
Little Rock @ App State -0.6 134.3 48% 60–67 ✗
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech -7.0 139.3 21% 76–66 ✓
Colorado State @ Nevada -0.8 142.7 50% 82–85 ✗
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount +0.5 141.4 51% 66–70 ✓
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +7.4 135.0 80% 55–66 ✓
Troy @ UT Arlington +3.5 131.9 63% 91–86 ✗
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon +7.6 139.0 76% 59–55 ✗
Seattle U @ California Baptist +1.9 147.5 55% 80–79 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Morehead State +1.0 142.0 60% 64–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific +2.7 137.6 61% 81–76 ✗
Florida State @ Notre Dame -4.6 153.7 35% 73–83 ✗
South Carolina @ Kentucky +8.0 149.4 80% 64–92 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +7.4 136.9 77% 76–68 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Bryant +10.3 153.6 84% 55–85 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +8.6 150.6 80% 72–80 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +8.9 135.7 79% 82–98 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota -0.0 141.7 46% 77–70 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +6.8 130.9 78% 62–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Loyola Chicago +8.6 124.2 78% 49–65 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +11.3 139.8 88% 63–80 ✓
Mississippi State @ Auburn +3.3 144.5 65% 71–78 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +15.9 148.2 88% 69–77 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +3.5 145.1 61% 74–73 ✗
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia +5.9 154.2 72% 85–80 ✗
Alabama @ Georgia -6.7 159.1 23% 89–79 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +6.9 136.5 76% 58–67 ✓
Arizona State @ Utah +4.1 147.4 68% 59–98 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +6.1 137.0 70% 79–77 ✗
Charlotte @ Marshall +14.3 142.4 87% 66–75 ✓
Bucknell @ Lafayette +4.1 154.9 67% 92–84 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Wagner +4.1 130.5 62% 66–60 ✗
Villanova @ Providence -2.2 139.7 43% 52–54 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga -1.7 133.4 41% 63–53 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Northwestern State +2.7 157.8 69% 70–79 ✓
LSU @ Missouri +1.8 157.4 62% 86–80 ✗
Towson @ Elon +3.7 138.3 66% 48–69 ✓
American University @ Army +6.6 136.3 71% 66–89 ✓
Southern Utah @ Portland State -2.0 144.7 32% 73–54 ✓
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +11.0 135.9 86% 69–81 ✓
Illinois @ Ohio State +0.8 153.4 53% 73–68 ✗
Virginia @ Louisville +0.2 129.9 45% 68–58 ✗
Hartford @ Vermont +8.8 137.7 76% 71–65 ✗
Missouri State @ Drake +3.6 141.7 67% 69–71 ✓
USC @ UCLA +0.1 139.6 51% 64–63 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Abilene Christian +19.1 135.7 90% 60–85 ✓
Southern @ Texas Southern +5.5 143.6 76% 74–80 ✓
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +16.2 139.8 89% 80–87 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +12.1 136.5 86% 73–93 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State -11.9 156.5 15% 75–82 ✗
Iowa State @ Kansas State +2.9 133.5 68% 56–61 ✓
Old Dominion @ Western Kentucky +9.8 140.8 80% 57–60 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +6.6 128.9 71% 65–61 ✗
Lamar @ McNeese -0.6 143.1 46% 60–51 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford -0.2 143.4 50% 62–61 ✓
South Alabama @ Louisiana +1.2 143.6 52% 68–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure +1.4 133.0 60% 53–71 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina +6.2 150.5 78% 73–91 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston Christian +4.8 146.1 58% 94–70 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston +3.1 152.6 68% 64–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ Georgia State +5.9 145.1 73% 68–71 ✓
Alabama State @ Jackson State +11.3 129.3 84% 54–79 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +12.1 151.1 85% 71–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.