Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PV -800 ALCN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PV -13.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -11.1 (+0.9) | 136.6 (+13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -11.2 (+0.8) | 134.5 (+15.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -10.4 (+1.6) | 137.5 (+12.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -11.0 (+1.0) | 135.9 (+14.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 6-7 |
| Home | 8-0 | 4-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#230) | -14.8 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#126) | -2.00 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#176) | -3.08 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#102) | 0.460 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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