Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UTC +170 ETSU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +10 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -1.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -1.3 (-8.7) | 134.2 (-18.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -1.8 (-8.2) | 130.4 (-14.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -1.5 (-8.5) | 133.7 (-17.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -1.7 (-8.3) | 133.4 (-17.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-8 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#141) | 3.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#112) | 0.10 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#119) | 0.49 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#96) | 0.518 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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