Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -138 CARK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -3.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -3.1 (+5.9) | 156.2 (-7.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -2.8 (+6.2) | 153.4 (-4.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -2.8 (+6.2) | 155.9 (-6.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -2.7 (+6.3) | 157.8 (-8.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2022 | NWST 74 – 66 CARK |
| Jan 30, 2021 | NWST 81 – 77 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 5-19 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 4-12 |
| Home | 6-4 | 4-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#314) | -11.3 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#319) | -2.44 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#326) | -3.44 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#253) | 0.451 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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