Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | UCSD -154 CSUF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +4 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -0.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -1.0 (+3.0) | 152.0 (+22.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -0.5 (+3.5) | 152.3 (+21.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.1 (+4.1) | 152.4 (+21.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -0.5 (+3.5) | 151.8 (+22.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 6-10 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 5-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 0-7 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#268) | -4.4 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#268) | -0.51 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#271) | -0.51 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#270) | 0.471 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 16.8% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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