Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -188 MSM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -3.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -3.6 (-9.6) | 126.1 (-0.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -3.8 (-9.8) | 131.1 (-5.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -4.1 (-10.1) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -4.1 (-10.1) | 127.9 (-1.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2022 | WAG 69 – 57 MSM |
| Feb 17, 2021 | WAG 57 – 55 MSM |
| Feb 17, 2021 | WAG 61 – 39 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#171) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#119) | -0.04 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#124) | 0.07 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#92) | 0.523 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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