Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -138 WAG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +22 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -4.8 (-26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -3.2 (-25.2) | 125.3 (-25.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.3 (-26.3) | 130.9 (-30.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -4.1 (-26.1) | 130.3 (-30.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.0 (-25.0) | 130.4 (-30.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2022 | WAG 69 – 57 MSM |
| Mar 6, 2021 | MSM 66 – 60 WAG |
| Feb 17, 2021 | WAG 57 – 55 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#172) | -2.7 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#156) | 0.20 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#151) | 0.17 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#110) | 0.519 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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