Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA +140 USC -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -2.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -0.3 (-0.7) | 139.3 (-12.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -1.8 (+0.8) | 135.6 (-8.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -0.4 (-1.4) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -0.1 (-1.1) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#45) | 15.4 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#37) | 2.27 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#37) | 3.05 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#24) | 0.611 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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