Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -300 VAL +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -8.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -8.1 (+2.9) | 134.7 (-13.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.8 (+5.2) | 133.9 (-12.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -7.8 (+3.2) | 135.2 (-14.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -7.4 (+3.6) | 135.0 (-14.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#94) | -2.7 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#95) | -0.72 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#110) | -0.96 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#103) | 0.447 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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