Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -110 MSST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -2.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.3 (+3.7) | 144.2 (+4.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -2.3 (+4.7) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.6 (+4.4) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -3.3 (+3.7) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#68) | 8.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#79) | 1.15 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#72) | 1.66 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#100) | 0.530 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.