Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -175 UAB +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -6.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -5.9 (-9.9) | 128.9 (-2.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -4.8 (-8.8) | 126.8 (-0.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -6.0 (-10.0) | 129.4 (-3.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -6.6 (-10.6) | 128.9 (-2.9) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UAB 72 – 68 UNT |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNT 78 – 75 UAB |
Game Analysis
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