Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +170 VILL -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +2 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -5.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-36.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.2 (+4.2) | 140.8 (-34.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -2.6 (+4.6) | 135.8 (-29.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -2.7 (+4.7) | 137.9 (-31.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.2 (+4.2) | 139.7 (-33.7) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 11-4 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#76) | 15.5 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#67) | 2.84 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#65) | 3.41 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#110) | 0.618 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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