Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -150 SAC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -3.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.5 (-4.5) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -3.1 (-4.1) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.2 (-4.2) | 144.9 (+2.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.5 (-4.5) | 145.1 (+1.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-10 | 8-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#237) | -5.3 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#230) | -1.48 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#244) | -1.87 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#217) | 0.454 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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