Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LMU +140 SF -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SF -0.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -0.1 (+3.9) | 139.7 (-3.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -0.9 (+3.1) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.4 (+4.4) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -0.5 (+3.5) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LMU 84 – 75 SF |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SF 72 – 66 LMU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SF 82 – 59 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 7-5 | 4-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 3-5 |
| Away | 4-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#112) | 4.9 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#73) | 0.35 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#89) | 0.47 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#84) | 0.501 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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