Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -1400 TA&M +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +7 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -18.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -16.3 (-9.3) | 140.0 (+27.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -14.0 (-7.0) | 140.1 (+26.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -15.2 (-8.2) | 139.8 (+27.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -16.2 (-9.2) | 139.8 (+27.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 8-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 2-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.9 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#8) | 1.1 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#13) | 0.62 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#17) | 0.50 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#17) | 0.479 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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