Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -700 CIT +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -9.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -8.3 (-0.3) | 151.2 (+0.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -6.8 (+1.2) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -8.2 (-0.2) | 153.7 (-1.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -8.6 (-0.6) | 150.6 (+1.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#96) | -3.7 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#93) | -0.18 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#94) | -0.23 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#66) | 0.484 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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