Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -150 HAW +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -0.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.1 (-6.1) | 145.3 (-4.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -0.5 (-4.5) | 141.6 (-0.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.7 (-5.7) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -1.0 (-6.0) | 145.4 (-4.4) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 11-10 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#260) | -2.2 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#198) | -0.25 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#215) | -0.48 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#189) | 0.472 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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