Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -200 UAB +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +14 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -6.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -6.4 (-20.4) | 129.4 (-13.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -4.7 (-18.7) | 127.1 (-11.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -6.0 (-20.0) | 129.2 (-13.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.2 (-21.2) | 129.0 (-13.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UAB 72 – 68 UNT |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNT 78 – 75 UAB |
Game Analysis
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