Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | JKST -1200 ALST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +25 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -13.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -10.8 (+14.2) | 129.7 (+3.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -11.6 (+13.4) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -11.1 (+13.9) | 132.3 (+0.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -11.3 (+13.7) | 129.3 (+3.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JKST 75 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 16, 2025 | ALST 60 – 56 JKST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JKST 77 – 70 ALST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JKST 73 – 63 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JKST 61 – 58 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 11-0 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-0 | 3-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#280) | -18.5 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#191) | -2.90 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#235) | -4.17 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#158) | 0.363 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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