Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | OSU -120 ILL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -1.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -0.6 (-5.6) | 154.2 (-13.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.4 (-4.6) | 149.9 (-8.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -0.6 (-5.6) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -0.8 (-5.8) | 153.4 (-12.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#10) | 20.5 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#10) | 3.11 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#7) | 4.37 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#21) | 0.614 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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