Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -138 DUKE +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -4.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.7 (+11.3) | 148.9 (+15.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.8 (+13.2) | 144.6 (+19.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -5.8 (+12.2) | 149.3 (+14.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.2 (+11.8) | 150.5 (+13.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#34) | 9.8 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#47) | 1.24 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#40) | 1.96 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#44) | 0.533 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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