Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ND +260 FSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -6.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -4.5 (+14.5) | 153.4 (+2.6) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -4.1 (+14.1) | 149.3 (+6.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -4.5 (+14.5) | 152.0 (+4.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -4.6 (+14.6) | 153.7 (+2.3) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | FSU 82 – 79 ND |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FSU 67 – 60 ND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FSU 67 – 58 ND |
| Jan 18, 2023 | FSU 84 – 71 ND |
| Dec 22, 2022 | FSU 73 – 72 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-4 |
| Home | 6-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#85) | 15.4 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | 2.63 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#101) | 3.30 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#152) | 0.596 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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