Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -200 UML +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +2 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -7.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.2 (-8.2) | 136.1 (+19.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.3 (-7.3) | 135.8 (+20.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.1 (-8.1) | 135.8 (+20.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.1 (-8.1) | 137.0 (+19.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-6 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Home | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#130) | -2.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#134) | -0.65 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#133) | -0.72 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#115) | 0.484 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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