Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +120 UVA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -2.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.3 (-9.7) | 129.7 (-3.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.4 (-8.6) | 127.0 (-1.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.5 (-9.5) | 128.2 (-2.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.2 (-10.2) | 129.9 (-3.9) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 13-4 |
| Home | 9-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-4 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#62) | 13.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#32) | 2.25 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#39) | 3.23 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#25) | 0.586 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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