Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +450 UAPB -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +23 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -11.7 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -9.1 (-13.9) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -8.9 (-14.1) | 138.7 (+2.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -11.1 (-11.9) | 141.0 (-0.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -10.6 (-12.4) | 136.0 (+5.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-22 | 4-21 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 3-12 |
| Home | 1-5 | 2-3 |
| Away | 1-16 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 56.8 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 87.4 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -32.8 (#349) | -18.5 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#343) | -2.84 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.03 (#345) | -4.20 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#328) | 0.387 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.5% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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