Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -225 SOU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -5.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -6.3 (-0.3) | 144.1 (+9.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -5.4 (+0.6) | 144.3 (+9.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -5.6 (+0.4) | 146.5 (+7.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -5.5 (+0.5) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 10-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-2 | 5-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#255) | -8.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#182) | -1.60 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#233) | -2.42 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#141) | 0.471 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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