Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–9 on winners spread MAE 7.3 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Michigan State @ Michigan +13.4 141.7 88% 50–69 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +12.0 156.1 84% 70–81 ✓
TCU @ West Virginia +11.9 146.8 87% 67–76 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas Tech +16.6 137.5 89% 54–81 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Cincinnati +3.8 148.0 64% 78–64 ✗
Canisius @ Siena +5.6 136.3 75% 66–73 ✓
Florida A&M @ North Carolina Central -0.2 128.6 48% 71–74 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine +5.1 144.7 69% 73–70 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +2.4 135.9 59% 72–60 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop +13.3 140.6 87% 61–82 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese -7.8 155.3 20% 80–67 ✓
UTEP @ Kansas +14.3 136.5 87% 62–67 ✓
Murray State @ Jacksonville State +1.0 140.3 54% 65–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Jackson State +6.7 126.4 72% 35–50 ✓
Southern @ Prairie View A&M +6.9 136.9 74% 61–68 ✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern +11.8 143.6 88% 78–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Iowa +16.7 153.7 88% 64–102 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma +2.3 147.2 64% 69–65 ✗
Arizona State @ Colorado +11.4 148.1 85% 61–75 ✓
San Diego @ San Francisco +7.5 145.5 79% 51–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +2.1 144.1 58% 60–65 ✓
UCF @ East Carolina -0.7 136.2 37% 64–60 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +12.9 147.3 87% 59–60 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling +8.1 134.4 83% 68–91 ✓
Wyoming @ Utah State +14.7 151.8 87% 59–72 ✓
Southern Utah @ Portland State -0.1 146.9 38% 68–58 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky +3.8 155.3 68% 67–70 ✓
Portland @ Santa Clara +11.9 146.7 85% 86–95 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +8.4 131.7 80% 59–75 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +14.0 127.1 87% 49–73 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State -11.7 158.3 14% 92–67 ✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Louis +3.7 144.3 64% 72–86 ✓
Stetson @ Liberty +9.4 139.4 82% 64–77 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +3.5 144.1 63% 75–77 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +6.0 136.2 73% 43–53 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +10.5 140.2 84% 62–75 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +6.3 139.3 75% 68–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +0.3 131.5 49% 66–64 ✗
Monmouth @ Rider -4.1 156.1 33% 65–62 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +8.7 147.8 77% 79–74 ✗
Western Carolina @ The Citadel -0.2 156.5 50% 86–100 ✗
George Mason @ Davidson +2.8 133.7 54% 67–99 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic +11.5 142.1 87% 54–63 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +1.9 143.7 64% 76–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Manhattan +3.8 129.8 60% 85–67 ✗
Kent State @ Buffalo +4.9 154.5 72% 67–81 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State +1.8 137.6 58% 58–62 ✓
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +3.2 133.7 67% 72–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.