Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -225 GMU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +32 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -4.4 (+27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -2.3 (+29.7) | 133.8 (+32.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -2.9 (+29.1) | 130.8 (+35.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -2.2 (+29.8) | 134.0 (+32.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -2.8 (+29.2) | 133.7 (+32.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 DAV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GMU 69 – 57 DAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | GMU 57 – 55 DAV |
| Jan 14, 2023 | GMU 67 – 65 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#72) | 3.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#91) | 0.73 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#81) | 0.74 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#149) | 0.525 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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