Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -175 FAIR +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +18 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -5.7 (-23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -3.7 (-21.7) | 129.6 (+22.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -3.7 (-21.7) | 129.3 (+22.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -3.4 (-21.4) | 130.4 (+21.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -3.8 (-21.8) | 129.8 (+22.2) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-13 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#271) | -10.0 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#246) | -1.31 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#253) | -1.55 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#281) | 0.425 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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