Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -188 NIU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -9.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -8.2 (-13.2) | 148.6 (+4.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -7.0 (-12.0) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -9.0 (-14.0) | 148.7 (+4.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -8.7 (-13.7) | 147.8 (+5.2) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CMU 88 – 46 NIU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NIU 74 – 73 CMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | NIU 83 – 81 CMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CMU 71 – 66 NIU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | CMU 69 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-16 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 2-12 |
| Home | 5-6 | 2-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#288) | -15.5 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#305) | -3.06 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#299) | -4.28 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#322) | 0.367 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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