Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | USA -200 ULM +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | USA -4.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.5 (+4.5) | 133.6 (+18.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.9 (+5.1) | 133.5 (+18.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.6 (+4.4) | 134.6 (+17.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.2 (+4.8) | 133.7 (+18.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
Game Analysis
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