Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PV -250 SOU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | PV -7.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -6.8 (+0.2) | 137.1 (-8.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -8.0 (-1.0) | 133.4 (-4.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -7.2 (-0.2) | 139.1 (-10.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -6.9 (+0.1) | 136.9 (-7.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-0 | 5-2 |
| Away | 5-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#227) | -8.8 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#129) | -1.57 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | -2.39 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#105) | 0.461 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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