Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GRAM -275 ALST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +23 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -9.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -8.1 (+14.9) | 133.5 (+25.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -6.9 (+16.1) | 135.9 (+23.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -7.8 (+15.2) | 137.8 (+21.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -8.1 (+14.9) | 134.4 (+24.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-4 | 3-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#321) | -17.8 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#289) | -2.84 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#306) | -4.10 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#251) | 0.364 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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