Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -800 MSU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +19 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -14.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -12.6 (+6.4) | 143.7 (-24.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -11.4 (+7.6) | 140.7 (-21.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -13.5 (+5.5) | 141.3 (-22.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -13.4 (+5.6) | 141.7 (-22.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#4) | 7.6 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#3) | 1.93 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.82 (#3) | 2.67 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#2) | 0.527 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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