Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -800 ALCN +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -13.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -12.4 (-10.4) | 144.7 (+13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -10.4 (-8.4) | 143.8 (+14.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -11.6 (-9.6) | 144.0 (+14.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -11.8 (-9.8) | 143.6 (+14.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 10-3 | 6-7 |
| Home | 8-2 | 4-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#247) | -15.4 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#183) | -1.96 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#237) | -3.03 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#137) | 0.460 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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