Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -175 SAC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -4.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.6 (-1.6) | 143.4 (+8.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -3.1 (-1.1) | 139.6 (+12.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.4 (-1.4) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.5 (-1.5) | 144.1 (+7.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-10 | 8-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#236) | -5.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#238) | -1.37 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#249) | -1.80 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#216) | 0.459 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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