Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -163 BC +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -2.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -2.4 (+1.6) | 144.2 (+11.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.1 (+2.9) | 144.6 (+11.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.6 (+1.4) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.9 (+2.1) | 143.7 (+12.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 4-16 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 2-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 3-5 |
| Away | 1-8 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#161) | 0.6 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | -0.38 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#175) | -0.09 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#245) | 0.440 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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