Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +150 WCU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +14 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | WCU -0.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -0.5 (+14.5) | 155.9 (+30.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIT -0.7 (+13.3) | 155.9 (+30.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -0.0 (+14.0) | 157.6 (+28.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -0.2 (+14.2) | 156.5 (+29.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | WCU 87 – 49 CIT |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CIT 79 – 77 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | WCU 76 – 73 CIT |
| Jan 25, 2025 | WCU 80 – 78 CIT |
| Feb 8, 2024 | WCU 71 – 64 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 4-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-5 |
| Away | 1-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#241) | -4.1 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#192) | -0.49 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#194) | -0.70 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#215) | 0.465 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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