Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -250 VAN +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +14 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -1.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -2.9 (-16.9) | 147.2 (-5.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -1.7 (-15.7) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -2.5 (-16.5) | 146.6 (-4.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -3.8 (-17.8) | 148.0 (-6.0) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 3-13 |
| Home | 5-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#124) | 4.1 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#87) | -0.00 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#96) | 0.54 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#79) | 0.459 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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