Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | INST -225 EVAN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +10 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | INST -6.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -5.8 (+4.2) | 136.3 (-40.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.4 (+5.6) | 129.8 (-33.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.3 (+4.7) | 133.7 (-37.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -6.0 (+4.0) | 136.2 (-40.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#128) | -3.4 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#122) | -0.63 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#132) | -0.87 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#98) | 0.471 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 26.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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