Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | EKU -120 APSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -4.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -4.1 (-1.1) | 157.0 (-20.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -1.8 (+1.2) | 151.0 (-14.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -3.5 (-0.5) | 155.1 (-18.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -3.8 (-0.8) | 155.3 (-18.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-7 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | -3.6 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#130) | -1.16 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#176) | -1.57 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#117) | 0.475 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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